The objective of this study is to empirically examine the income disparity between Japan and each of the five major economies of South East Asia (ASEAN−5) during the period of 1960 to 1997, utilizing the popular augmented Dickey−Fuller (ADF) unit root test. The results provide evidence of income divergence between Japan and each of the ASEAN−5 economies. To avoid the problem associated with structural break, this study proceeds with the jointly crash and changes in trend model proposed by Zivot and Andrews (1992), and is able to obtain evidence of long run income convergence between the Japanese and Singaporean economies. As for the rest of the four ASEAN countries− Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand, the earlier results of income divergence remain valid and hence suggest that it would be a more realistic and urgent goal to narrow the income gap among these five core economies of ASEAN.
Income disparity; Unit root test; Structural break; Japan; ASEAN-5
The finding of exchange rate–relative price nonlinear cointegration relationship in Malaysia, among others, suggests that nonlinear Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) equilibrium may be regarded as reference point in judging the short run misalignment of the Ringgit currency and thereby deducing effective policy actions. Moreover, economists who wish to extend the simple PPP exchange rate model into the more complicated monetary exchange models may do so comfortably, at least in the text of Malaysia. Nonetheless, such attempt should be tailored in a nonlinear way to suit the nonlinear characteristic of exchange rate behaviour.
Nonlinearity; Cointegration; Exchange rate; Purchasing power parity; Malaysia
This study utilizes the Hinich portmanteau bicorrelation test in conjunction with the windowed testing procedure to examine the cross−temporal universality of non−linear dependencies in the returns series for Asian stock market indices. As a whole, the detected non−linear dependencies do not appear to be persistent or stable across time for all the stock markets. In particular, the underlying process is of a switching type, with the pure noise process from time to time switches to a non−linear dependent stochastic process for some unknown length of time, and then switches back to pure−noise. This provides a plausible explanation for the disappointing forecasting performance of many non−linear models, as these existing models do not take note of the episodic transient nature of the non−linear dependency structures.
Nonlinearity; Predictability; Bicorrelation; Asian; Stock markets
This study re-examines the validity of the relationship between the Singapore dollar–U.S. dollar exchange rate and relative prices using the latest econometric methodologies that account for non-linearity. Among others, this study finds Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive (ESTAR)-type non-linear mean-reverting adjustment process of the nominal Singapore dollar–U.S. dollar rate towards the consumer price index ratio. Unlike previous findings of a linear cointegration relationship between the nominal Singapore dollar–U.S. dollar exchange rate and consumer price index ratio, this study shows that the relationship is in fact non-linear in nature. The major economic implications of our findings are: (1) policy makers need to take non-linearity into consideration in their policy decisions; (2) the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is able to maintain the macroeconomic equilibrium despite the authority’s strong dollar policy; and (3) one should keep track of Singapore’s monetary policy and other innovations in aggregate demand in order to closely monitor the movement of the Singapore exchange rate.
Exchange rates; Non-linearity; Purchasing power parity; Exponential smooth transition autoregressive (ESTAR) model; Singapore
Utilizing the formal linearity test of Luukkonen, Saikkonen and Teräsvirta (Biometrika, 75, 491-499, 1998) as diagnostic tool, the empirical finding suggests that the linear autoregressive (AR) model is inadequate in describing the real exchange rates behaviour of 11 Asian economies. It is noted that the conventional battery of diagnostic tests is capable of identifying the inadequacy of the linear model in only three of these series. Moreover, the linearity nature of this behaviour has been formally rejected in favour of the non-linear smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model. The finding of non-linearity in the data generating process of these real exchange rates warrants that the use of linear framework in empirical modelling and statistical testing procedures in the field of exchange rates may lead to an inappropriate policy conclusions.
Exchange rates; Non-linearity; Data generating process; Smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model; Asia