This paper revisits the income convergence hypothesis by using the nonlinear unit root test of Kapetanios et al. [Kapetanios, G., Shin, Y. and A. Snell, 2003. Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework. Journal of Econometrics 112, 359–379.]. Out of the 12 OECD income gaps in which nonlinearity has been detected, two cases of long-run converging and four cases of catching up are found.
OECD; Long-run convergence; Catching up; Nonlinear unit root test
The present study adopts the framework of Lim et al. (2006) who conjectured that the existence of nonlinear serial dependencies is due to shocks that unsettled the market and caused large deviations from equilibrium. Specifically, this article extends the investigation to shed further light on whether different economic sectors of the Malaysian stock market are subjected to the same shocks effects. The results reveal that the Russian crisis, negative economic outlook, unorthodox capital control measures, increased political tension, uncertainty over Central Limit Order Book issue, and the imposition of repatriation levy, have sent shock waves throughout the domestic stock market.
Nonlinearity; Bicorrelation; Event study; Stock market; Malaysia
The objective of this paper is to re-examine the weak-form efficiency of 10 Asian emerging stock markets. Using a battery of nonlinearity tests, the statistical results reveal that all the returns series still contain predictable nonlinearities even after removing linear serial correlation from the data. The next stage of sub-sample analysis using the Hinich [Hinich, M., 1996. Testing for dependence in the input to a linear time series model. Journal of Nonparametric Statistics 6, 205–221] bicorrelation test shows that the 10 Asian series follow a pure noise process for long periods of time, only to be interspersed with brief periods of strong nonlinear dependence. The exploratory investigation found that the cross-country differences in nonlinear departure from market efficiency can be explained by market size and trading activity, while the transient burst of nonlinear periods in each individual market can be attributed largely to the occurrence of economic and political events.
Predictability; Nonlinearity; Market efficiency; Emerging markets; Asia
This paper empirically investigates the effects of the 1997 financial crisis on the efficiency of eight Asian stock markets, applying the rolling bicorrelation test statistics for the three sub-periods of pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis. On a country-by-country basis, the results demonstrate that the crisis adversely affected the efficiency of most Asian stock markets, with Hong Kong being the hardest hit, followed by the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Korea. However, most of these markets recovered in the post-crisis period in terms of improved market efficiency. Given that the evidence of nonlinear serial dependencies indicates equilibrium deviation resulted from external shocks, the present findings of higher inefficiency during the crisis are not surprising as in the chaotic financial environment at that time, investors would overreact not only to local news, but also to news originating in the other markets, especially when the news events were adverse.
Market efficiency; Asian crisis; Stock market; Nonlinear serial dependence; Bicorrelation
The present paper demonstrates, via a rolling sample approach, that the stylized fact of nonlinear dependence in stock returns is quite localized in time, suggesting that market efficiency evolves over time. Given that the rolling sample framework is able to detect periods of efficiency/inefficiency, the relative efficiency of stock markets can easily be assessed by comparing the total time windows these markets exhibit significant nonlinear serial dependence. It was found that the US market is the most efficient while Argentine is at the end of the ranking.
Nonlinear dependence; Bicorrelation; Market efficiency
Utilizing the standard linearity test of Luukkonen et al. (1988), the linear nature of all the Asian stock indices has been formally rejected. This finding warrants use of the nonlinear stationary test of Kapetanois et al. (2003), which is also constructed in the STAR framework, to investigate the mean reverting property of the stock prices series. As a whole, this study not only found convincing evidence of a nonlinear mean reverting pattern in all the Asian stock indices, but also demonstrates the risk of drawing the wrong inferences on mean reversion when the ADF test is applied to data governed by nonlinearity.
Nonlinearity; Mean reversion; Smooth transition autoregressive (STAR); Asian; Stock market
This study employs the Hinich portmanteau bicorrelation test (Hinich 1996; Hinich and Patterson 1995) as a diagnostic tool to determine the adequacy of Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models for eight Asian stock markets. The bicorrelation test results demonstrate that this type of model cannot provide an adequate characterisation for the underlying process of all the selected Asian stock markets. Further investigation using the windowed test procedure reveals that the violation of the covariance stationarity assumption as required by the GARCH process is due to the presence of transient epochs of dependencies in the data. The inadequacy of GARCH models has strong implications for the pricing of stock index options, portfolios selection, development of optimal hedging techniques and risk management.
GARCH; Non-stationarity; Data generating process; Bicorrelation; Asian stock markets
This paper advocates a reverse from of event studies that is data−dependent to determine endogeneously the events that trigger non−linear market behavior. Using the Malaysian stock market as our case study, coupled with the ‘windowing’ approach proposed by Hinich and Patterson (1995), the present study is able to identify major political and economic events that contributed to the short bursts of non−linear behavior. The present framework can be extended to individual firm to examine the adjustment of its stock price to firm−specific events, which will provide deeper insight into issues on corporate finance.
Nonlinearity; Event study; Bicorrelation; Malaysia; Stock market
This study examines the issue of income convergence in the East−Asian economies from the non−linear point of view. It is shown in this study that the income gaps between Japan and the rest of the East−Asian economies exhibit nonlinearities. It is further shown that after taking non−linearity into consideration, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines exhibit divergence behaviour with respect to Japan’s income, whereas Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan and Singapore show otherwise.
Income convergence; Nonlinearity; Japan; East Asia